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On average, these milestones tended to be passed a few years before their forecasted date, and sometimes forecasters were unaware that they had already passed (Charbonneau et al, 2013).A particularly accurate book in predicting the future was The Year 2000, a 1967 book by Herman Kahn and Anthony Wiener.
On even longer time scales, in 1900 the engineer John Watkins did a good job of forecasting many basic features of society a century later (Watkins 1900) […] Some say no one could have anticipated the recent big changes associated with the arrival and consequences of the World Wide Web.
There will be no surface-level transportation in cities as all cars and walkways have moved underground.
The letters C, X, and Q will be removed from the language.
Yet participants in the Xanadu hypertext project in which I was involved from 1984 to 1993 correctly anticipated many key aspects of the Web […] Such examples show that one can use basic theory to anticipate key elements of distant future environments, both physical and social, but also that forecasters do not tend to be much rewarded for such efforts, either culturally or materially.
This helps to explain why there are relatively few serious forecasting efforst.
Everything Tolkien wrote is Tolkienesque in a non-tautological sense.
This isn’t meant to denounce either writer as boring. They produced a range of brilliant and diverse ideas.When Robin Hanson tells me about his latest research, my standard reaction is ‘No way! Even the cover gives you a weird sense of sublimity mixed with unease: And in this case, judging a book by its cover is entirely appropriate. Age of Em is a work of futurism – an attempt to predict what life will be like a few generations down the road.This is not a common genre – I can’t think of another book of this depth and quality in the same niche.Most of the predictions seem simply and completely false.Watkins believes all animals and insects will have been eradicated.But there was a hard-to-define and very consistent ethos at the foundation of both. Robin Hanson is more like himself than anybody else I know. ” sometime around 2008 after reading his blog Overcoming Bias.